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What Is Implied Probability in Betting?

Implied probability is the win rate that a set of odds represents — the break-even percentage you'd need to hit for the bet to be profitable. It's simply 1 ÷ the decimal odds.

Odds are probabilities in disguise

Every price is really a probability. Decimal odds of 2.00 imply 50% (1 ÷ 2.00). Odds of 1.50 imply 66.7%; odds of 4.00 imply 25%. Convert every price to implied probability and you can compare bets, spot value, and measure the vig.

Example

A team is priced at 2.50. Implied probability = 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%. If you believe their true chance is higher than 40%, the bet is +EV; if lower, it's −EV.

Watch the vig

The implied probabilities a book shows include its margin, so both sides add up to more than 100%. To get the fair probability, you have to devig the market first.

Try it yourself. Use our free Odds converter — or see live +EV bets and odds on the board.

FAQ

How do I convert odds to probability?

Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds. For American odds, convert to decimal first, then divide.

Why do implied probabilities add up to more than 100%?

Because of the vig — the sportsbook's built-in margin. The excess over 100% is the overround.

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