🎲 Skill vs luck
We simulate the exact decided slate thousands of times from the model's own win probabilities. Where the real result lands tells you how much was edge and how much was variance.
🎯 Closing-line value → realized ROI
The one table that matters. Bucket every bet by how much it beat (or lost to) the closing line. If the process has an edge, ROI climbs monotonically. Your results are noise; your CLV is signal.
Cumulative P/L
By sport & edge band
📒 The ledger — every bet, losers included
Timestamped at placement so it can't be backdated. Filterable, auditable, honest.